The Possibility Using the Power Production Function of Complex Variable for Economic Forecasting Cover Image

О возможности экономического прогнозирования с помощью степенной производственной функции комплексного переменного
The Possibility Using the Power Production Function of Complex Variable for Economic Forecasting

Author(s): Sergey Gennadyevich Svetunkov
Subject(s): Economy
Published by: Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук
Keywords: economic and mathematical modeling; production functions; complex-valued economy; complex-valued variables; economic forecasting; econometrics; exponential smoothing method; economic dynamics;

Summary/Abstract: The possibility of dynamic analysis and forecasting production results using the power production functions of complex variables with real coefficients is considered. This model expands the arsenal of instrumental methods and allows multivariate production forecasts which are unattainable by other methods of real variables as the functions of complex variables simulate the production differently in comparison with the models of real variables. The values of coefficients of the power production functions of complex variables can be calculated for each statistical observation. This allows to consider the change of the coefficients over time, to analyze this trend and predict the values of the coefficients for a given term, thereby to predict the form of the production function, which forecasts the operating results. Thus, the model of the production function with variable coefficients is introduced into the scientific circulation. With this model, the inverse problem of forecasting might be solved, such as the determination of the necessary quantities of labor and capital to achieve the desired operational results. The study is based on the principles of the modern methodology of complex-valued economy, one of its sections is the complex-valued patterns of production functions. In the article, the possibility of economic forecasting is tested on the example of the UK economy. The results of this prediction are compared with the forecasts obtained by other methods, which have led to the conclusion about the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the method of forecasting at the macro levels of production systems. A complex-valued power model of the production function is recommended for the multivariate prediction of sustainable production systems — the global economy, the economies of individual countries, major industries and regions.

  • Issue Year: 12/2016
  • Issue No: 3
  • Page Range: 966 - 976
  • Page Count: 11
  • Language: Russian