Time Series Model for Predicting the Mean Death Rate of a Disease
Time Series Model for Predicting the Mean Death Rate of a Disease

Summary/Abstract: This study develops a time series model to estimate the mean death rate of either an emerging disease or re-emerging disease with a bilinear induced model. The estimated death rate converges rapidly to the true parameter value for a given mean death at time t. The derived model could be used in predicting the m-step future death rate value of a given disease. We illustrated the new concept with real life data.

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