Klasyczne metody analizy ryzyka projektów inwestycyjnych
Sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis in investment appraisal

Summary/Abstract: The paper deals with the methodology and application of the sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis – two well-known techniques of risk analysis applied in the evaluation of investment projects. The paper presents the essence and key definitions of these techniques, and highlights the most common mistakes and errors that have been made by investment appraisal analysts when applying both techniques. The paper gives examples of investment projects with substantial costs overruns. The final part draws some conclusions and remarks regarding the usefulness and limitations of sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis in investment appraisal.

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