A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria Cover Image

A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria
A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

Author(s): Kaloyan Ganev
Subject(s): Economy, National Economy
Published by: Софийски университет »Св. Климент Охридски«
Keywords: business cycle; output gap; potential growth

Summary/Abstract: This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. Empirical results using Bulgarian data are also included for llustrative purposes.

  • Issue Year: 2015
  • Issue No: 4
  • Page Range: 2-18
  • Page Count: 17
  • Language: English