Momentum and changes in size and age structure of the population in Bulgaria over the period 1947-2009 Cover Image
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Momentum and changes in size and age structure of the population in Bulgaria over the period 1947-2009
Momentum and changes in size and age structure of the population in Bulgaria over the period 1947-2009

Author(s): Kamellia Lillova
Subject(s): Social Sciences, Sociology, Demography and human biology
Published by: Институт за изследване на населението и човека - Българска академия на науките
Keywords: population age structure; population age composition; population momentum; population inertia; population growth potential; demographic ageing; reproduction.

Summary/Abstract: Population momentum in Bulgaria during 1947-2009 has been studied in relation to changes in the population size and age structure. The population momentum of Bulgaria has been decreasing continuously for more than 70 years – from high positive to high negative values. So in the middle of the last century the age structure ensured potential for 30% future population increase, and today it has potential for 20% population reduction. Momentum decomposition into stable and nonstable components showed that the age composition was highly desta¬bilized in the 1990s, due to sharp changes of the birth rate. Calculation of age-specific momentum showed the presence of peculiar trends in the age groups. Trend analysis of the total and age-specific momentum statistics in the context of the demographic transition threw additional light on the mechanism of population ageing in Bulgaria.

  • Issue Year: 2014
  • Issue No: 2
  • Page Range: 6-33
  • Page Count: 28
  • Language: English