Przyszłość NATO
NATO'S FUTURE

Summary/Abstract: Russian aggression in Ukraine is a turning point in NATO’s post-Cold War evolution.There are three possible scenarios that reflect the future of the organization.The revitalization scenario involves the re-creation of NATO as a very traditionalalliance, dedicated to the defence of its members against external threats. The reconstructionsscenario means a dynamic composition of NATO as an alliance builtof two types of members which differ in terms of their contribution to common defenceand the level of protection offered by the organization. The transition scenarioentails further evolution of the alliance towards a collective security organizationor international regime, while its defence functionalities erode. The key factors thatcould impact these scenarios are located – politically and geographically – outside the NATO area, which poses an additional challenge for NATO leaders. The realstate of collective defence will be the main indicator of NATO’s evolution, however,the meaning of collective defence should be reconsidered if it is to serve to assessNATO’s real defence capabilities.

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