Prognozowanie zmian udziału użytków rolnych w powierzchni ogólnej Krakowa
Forecasting Changes in the Share of Farmland Area in the Overall Area of Cracow

Summary/Abstract: The article constitutes an attempt to forecast the share of farmland area in an overall area, using Cracow as an example. In fact, under the centrally planned economy, Cracow took over a large part of farmland areas, which recently have become subject to intensive development. The research was done in the years 1977–2012 within the town limits as laid out for each respective census year. The analysis takes into consideration the four former districts: Krowodrza, Nowa Huta, Podgórze and Sródmieście, all of which were preserved as cadastral units for survey balance purposes. The forecast was done for the period 2012–2022. So as to determine long-term changes in land use, taking as example the total farmland area, we have applied the linear trend method which forecasts development tendencies based upon a longer time span. The verification confirms the statistical significance of the mathematical functions used. Generally speaking, for the years 2012–2022, the research shows that the share of farmland to the total area will decrease not only for Cracow as a whole but also in its respective districts.

• Details
• Contents