ECONOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF VOTING BEHAVIOUR
ECONOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF VOTING BEHAVIOUR
Author(s): Nicoleta Jula, Nicolae-Marius JulaSubject(s): Economy
Published by: Universitatea Nicolae Titulescu
Keywords: economic voting; responsive hypothesis; econometric forecasting; regional data analysis; vote function
Summary/Abstract: In this paper, we are testing the responsive hypothesis: if the economy is growing strongly and unemployment is low, the incumbent party has a very good chance of retaining office. When the economy is faltering, voters will more likely vote for change. We use econometric models for forecasting, based on economic data, the voter's choices and the evolution of the economy under the influence of political pressure.
Journal: LESIJ - Lex ET Scientia International Journal
- Issue Year: XIX/2012
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 146-153
- Page Count: 8