Ekonometryczne modelowanie i prognozowanie wzrostu gospodarczego polski powiązanego ze zmiennymi symptomatycznymi turystyki
Econometric modeling and forecasting of basic macroeconomic figures of economic growth for Poland and forecasts of variables connected with tourism in

Summary/Abstract: The results of prognosis research presented above are a sequel to what began in 2009 as an econometric modeling procedure an attempt to forecast to elements that describes the causes and consequences of economic growth in Poland. The econometric analysis of endogenous variables is based on high frequency statistical data for the period between the first quarter of 2005 and the fourth quarter of 2010. Table 3 shows estimated the fully recursive model of endogenous variables (Exports - grand total - EXPCE, Imports - grand total - IMPE, Sold production of industry - grand total - SPNN, Gross domestic product - PKBZN). Table 4 shows the forecasted variables for the period 2011-2012. The following methods were used for the forecasted variables: - Descriptive recursive equation model (Table 3). - Exponential smoothing models (called Winter's linear and seasonal exponential smoothing). We forecast that exports and imports in EURO millions will probably increase in 2011 and 2012 but the trade deficit will be growing steadily. We predict that PKBZN will increase by 4,4% in 2011 and by 3,0% in 2012 in relation to the previous year

• Details
• Contents