XXa. tarptautinės krizės
International Crisis In The 20th Century

Summary/Abstract: Straipsnyje nagrinėjami dar plačiai neišplėtoti XXa. Tarptautinių krizių kilmės ir raidos analizės aspektai, akcentuojant šių procesų dinamiką lemiančius faktorius, lyginant juos laiko ir teritorijos (regionų – saugumo kompleksų) dimensijų atžvilgiu. Atliktų tyrimų metu didžiausias dėmesys kreipiamas bendrų ir regioninių krizių eskalacijos tendencijų išryškinimui; valstybių diadų, strateginių supriešinimų, ilgalaikių konfliktų fenomenams; didžiųjų sistemos subjektų (daugiausia supervalstybių) vaidmeniui krizių eskalavimo procesuose. Pastarieji kiekybiniai tyrimai ir lyginamoji analizė vykdomi naudojant International Crisis Behavior (ICB) tarptautinių krizių duomenų bazę, SPSS 12.0 programinio paketo pagalba. The twentieth century is an era of pervasive turmoil. There were two cataclysmic full-scale wars and many wars and conflicts of lesser importance in all parts of the world. The term crisis is among the most widely used verbal symbols of turmoil in politics among nations. Scholars and journalists, too, often write about such things as incidents, disputes, riots, and rebellions etc. as crisis. In short, crisis is a pervasive term to describe dis ruption and disorder in the global arena. Many political scientists have been researching this phenomenon of international system but there is still a need for new researches and analysis of crisis in world politics. New technological tools and data-sets enable further development of analytical aspects of crisis theory: eruption of conflictual situations, context and reasons of crisis escalation and de-escalation, decision making process etc. The main reason impelled to write this article is the lack of integral theory on crisis issues. That is why the main objective of this study is to make a quantitative and comparative research of the crisis in the 20th century in order to highlight the main influential factors of this process in different time and space dimensions. A quantitative and comparative analysis in this article was performed using International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data-set of international crisis (by the SPSS 12.0 package). The results of the research confirm the presumption that the analysis of different „levels“ provides different outcomes. The research of conflicts and crisis of global level highlights only their common trends in a distinct time-span. In order to get more specific data of conflict processes the research was limited to the regional level (a security complex), which provide the most important facts about crisis escalation process and its influential factors (system structure, polarity, great power involvement etc.).

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