EMERGENCE  OF  DETERMINISTIC  CHAOS:  LIMITED  PASSAGE  IN  THE  EVOLUTION  OF  ECONOMY Cover Image

Emergencia deterministického chaosu: ohraničená pasáž v evolúcii ekonomiky
EMERGENCE OF DETERMINISTIC CHAOS: LIMITED PASSAGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF ECONOMY

Author(s): Ladislav Andrášik, Juraj Krempaský
Subject(s): Economy
Published by: Ekonomický ústav SAV a Prognostický ústav SAV

Summary/Abstract: The core of the explanation in this paper deals with the secondary generalisation of the Schumpeter’s oscillation model in economic systems. As already known, W. Weid-lich and G. Haag made the first generalisation of the Schumpeter’s evolution model by means of synergetics in [31]. The authors for the sake of better comprehensibility of the problem included in the text of their paper also a simpler and in wider economic com-munity better known model, which however can also lead towards the emergence of deterministic chaos of the „classic“ Lorenz type (meteorologist E. N. Lorenz [12]). Having in mind the same aim, by bridging over both approaches in order to address better the readers, the authors avoided analytic mathematical means and used more comprehensive computer simulation and/or computer experimenting with traditional mathematical model changed into simulation model. This experimenting takes place in the STELLA toolbox. In the innovated generalisation of Schumpeter’s oscilation, the authors replaced the original two evolution equations by the three equations striving to demonstrate that the-se equations in the extreme case identify themselves with well-known Lorenz approach or may be with his reduced system of the three evolution equations describing the dy-namics of climatic systems. That might mean that also evolutionary economic systems can tend towards the emergence of such chaotic regimes. This conclusion might explain the fact why economic oscillations bear in general the signs of chaotic dynamics, and the fact that Lorenz system of evolutionary equations is characterised by certain univer-sality, as their validity proved itself in various systems qualitatively differing one from another. In recent 10 – 15 years, one discovered in scientific and special literature va-rious applications of chaotic dynamics for economic brainteasers. In the attached list of literature, the reader can convince oneself – the authors point out in the text at some interesting solutions. The authors in their research of complex and adaptive economic systems gain new knowledge on the two mutually complementary tools: • In the case of L. Andrášik dominate computer experiments based on simulation models of the latest generation, above all in the sphere of multiagent systems. Untradi-tional and unconventional simulation models designed in the Chair of economy and managements in the Department of Electrical Engineering and Informatics of the Slo-vak Technical University (KEM FEI STU) enable to generate artificial laboratories applicable for the basic economic research, teaching process, and for the authorities in the economic policy and entrepreneurial practice. It is interesting that evolutionary processes going on in these laboratories tend to fall into the chaos regime, actually also due to internal causes. These findings surprisingly well correspond to the objective economic development above all in the so-called transitive economies.

  • Issue Year: 50/2002
  • Issue No: 06
  • Page Range: 1076-1099
  • Page Count: 24
  • Language: Slovak