Between Russia and the EU: Transformational Opportunities for Belarus
Between Russia and the EU: Transformational Opportunities for Belarus

Summary/Abstract: The crisis in relations between Belarus and Russia that started at the end of 2006 is forcing Belarusian authorities to look for new foreign policy directions. Alexander Lukashenko has mentioned the necessity to balance Belarusian foreign policy and stop being dependant only on Russia. Such changes may encourage the EU to review its policies towards Belarus. The EU policy of isolating Belarus and applying sanctions to it is absolutely inefficient since it has not promoted either the liberalisation of the Belarusian regime or any democratisation of the society. In this article, it is argued that because of the crisis in relations between Belarus and Russia, one of two scenarios for the transformation of Belarus in the nearest future is likely to be seen: Belarus might become “a shadow of Russia” and definitively transfer its economic and political sovereignty to Moscow, or the country might become a “typical Eastern European state” trying to balance between pro-Russian and pro-European policies. The EU should strengthen selective cooperation with Belarus, first of all in the fields of economic and energy relations. Only in this way can the EU increase the opportunities for Belarus to reduce its dependency on Russia and thus maintain its political and economic independence in the future.

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