Az európai parlamenti választások mandátum-előrejelzésének pontossága
The Accuracy of the Forecasts of Mandates Before the Elections for The European Parliament

Summary/Abstract: After the first round of parliamentary elections in 2002 the belief in the validity of polls concerning to election participation made by poll establishments in Hungary collapsed. Comparing the results of that time’s polls and the valid election data has marched into memory as the Black Sunday of Poll Researchers. In our study the inquiry focused on the closeness of forecast of poll researcher establishments on the occasion of the European Parliament election in June 2004. It has been prooved on the EP election as well that could be presumed after the Parliamentary elections in 2002: the political poll reseaches or rather the related different analyses and forecasts in Hungary came to a head since they could retrace reality only with little effectiveness. However, miscalculation is not that spectacular as it was in 2002 because analysts indicated with relative uniformness the probable winner of the election. Nevertheless the probable participation, the forecast of the order of power among political parties and the forecast of mandates counted on these grounds was significantly different from reality. The issue is whether the questioning techniques of poll researches are obsolete for now and surveys concerning politics ought to be measured by new instruments?

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