Методът на Lee-Carter за моделиране и съвместно прогнозиране на по възрастовите коефициенти на смъртност в България през периода 1990—2020 г.
The Lee-Carter method for modeling and simultaneous forecasting of population mortality rates in Bulgaria from 1990 to 2020
Subject(s): Social Sciences
Published by: Институт за изследване на населението и човека - Българска академия на науките
Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this article is to present the nature of Lee-Carter method and its applicability on population mortality rates forecasting in Bulgaria to 2020. The method is based on modern time-series methods of forecasting and the expo¬nential model for age-time mortality rates distribution. The Lee-Carter method is a special case of principal component analysis. The advantages and possibilities of the one untraditional for Bulgaria approach of mortality rate forecasting are substantiated.
- Issue Year: 2006
- Issue No: 1-2
- Page Range: 92-102
- Page Count: 1
- Language: Bulgarian