Bulgarien und die globale Krise - Wirtschaftliche, soziale und politische Implikationen
Bulgaria and the Global Crisis – Economic, Social and Political Implications

Summary/Abstract: Bulgaria with its high economic dynamism and financial stability is in a good position to counter the global crisis. Over the past seven years it succeeded in registering high growth rates, in attracting foreign investors and capital and in bringing down unemployment. Thanks to a prudent fiscal policy, it managed to build solid reserves and even to generate budget surpluses in recent years. The Currency Board has been and will remain the guarantor of stability. In the last quarter of 2008, though, the repercussions of the global financial and economic crisis could clearly be felt in Bulgaria, too. It is to be expected that under its impact growth will slow down considerably. Bulgaria does not face the risk of a collapse in its banking sector and tremors in the national economy can be cushioned with additional economic programmes, while social disruptions can be minimized through adequate labour market policies. The crisis will accelerate an overdue market consolidation, especially in the property market. However, it may also lead to a new boom in Bulgaria’s “corruption economy”. With foreign investments going down and public expenditure rising “corruption pressure” for public contracts in the institutions involved will increase. The extent to which the crisis will have an impact on Bulgaria will determine how substantial this might affect social and political parameters.

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