Vertrauen und Misstrauen am Nistru – Aussichten für eine Regelung des Transnistrien-Konflikts
Trust and Mistrust on the Nistru Prospects for a Solution of the Transnistrian Conflict

Summary/Abstract: The article analyzes the process of confidence-building measures (CBMs) between the central government of the Republic of Moldova and the de facto authorities of the breakaway Transnistrian region and its effect on the wider settlement process. To this end, the article outlines first the concept of non-military confidence building measures, which are understood as actions or processes undertaken in political, economic, environmental, social or cultural fields with the aim of increasing transparency and the level of trust and confidence between two or more conflicting parties to prevent conflicts from escalating and to pave the way for lasting conflict settlement. It then analyzes the main developments in the Transnistrian settlement process and the confidence building process, which was initiated back in 2007 but started to produce first results only in 2010. The article argues that the main impediment to a final settlement lies in the deep mistrust between the two sides. It makes the point that while the limited progress achieved in the CBM process so far has helped to resume official negotiations in the so-called „5+2“ format in November 2011, tangible results in the CBM-process would be needed in 2012 to move from the resumption of formal negotiations as such to serious negotiations on the substance of Transnistria’s future status.

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