Интегрална оценка на състоянието и измененията във възрастовата структура иа българското население
Integral estimate of the level and changes the Bulgarian population age structure

Summary/Abstract: The author cites his article "The Bulgarian Age Structure and its Space Aspects and Changes during 1975—83" ("Naselenie". 1986, No 4) regarding the used there method of measuring of population age structure. It is developed by a modification of the estimator "Leyel.of development" elaborated by the Polish statistician Z. Hellwig. Its methodology is related to the well known Wrocław's Taxonomy and to some approaches of the multivariate statistical analyses. In general this estimator is enabling the quantification and determining of the degree of favourability or infavourability regarding the population reproduction of the established at a given moment proportion of the age groups (the age distribution not being limited by interval — 1, 5 years, etc.). This approach is applied by the author in a regional demographic survey, supplying data on the age structure diversities by community. As a criteria of diversification an optimized proportion of three groups — population in working age, population under and population above working age has been addopted. It is highlighted with the evaluation of a short time demographic potential need for maintaining population growth at the reproductive level. The contribution of the author is in his effort to improve the measurement. The degree of favourability of the age structure regarding the normal reproductive level is determined by means of an estimator of the equilibrium of the proportion of children, parents and grand parents, using the well known age classification of the Sweden demographer G. Zunberg. On the base of the 1992 population census data a great number of coefficients of age structure have been calculated and used in estimating the degree of favourability of various groups of the Bulgarian population by ethnic, region and urban/rural residence.

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