Развива ли се футурологията?
Does Futurology Develop?

Summary/Abstract: The article dwells on the development of future studies. It goes into discussion of the origin and the late appearance of the discipline. The author ventures to explain the genealogy of this young science and sets forth three hypotheses of its belated emergence. The first one relates to the fact that people became aware behind schedule of their true responsibilities for the future. Back in time, people did not happen to realize that their actions would bring about effects hundreds of years later. The second reason is that the human race survived such a tragic event as World War Two. It spread over a large part of the planet’s population, shook people out of their previous beliefs and made them reconsider some basic human values. Last but not least, futurology has an interdisciplinary nature and it took some time for its resource sciences to evolve. Over the years, any method of future prediction undergoes changes. Some of the methods become outdated, others modernize their toolkits and argumentation packages, which turns them into reliable instruments of prognosis. The approved methods combine all current trends of different nature and humanitarian studies in order to improve their predictive power. They sophisticate their methods or transform into others, or include the capacity of the latest IT and technological inventions. To sum up, prognostic techniques highlight the very importance of the human factor and the creative capacity of the human being.

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