2024-2025 Trendyol Süper Lig Sezonunda Atılan İlk Golün Maç Sonucuna Etkisinin İç Saha ve Deplasman Değişkenlerince İncelenmesi
An Analysis of the Impact of the First Goal Scored on the Match Result in the 2024-2025 Trendyol Süper Lig Season, Based on Home and Away Variables

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this study is to contribute to coaches and football stakeholders regarding tactical and strategic planning, given the dynamic nature of football and the tactical and physical parameters that are constantly evolving. The study sample consists of 317 first goal selected from the 342 matches played and 1,004 goals scored by the 19 teams competing in the Trendyol Süper Lig during the 2024-2025 season. Data were obtained via a descriptive/retrospective method from the Turkish Football Federation’s official website, which is publicly accessible. SPSS and Jamovi software were used for all statistical analyses; non-parametric methods were preferred as many of the variables did not exhibit a normal distribution. An examination of the timing and medians of the first goals revealed that goal production was significantly more concentrated in the first 45-minute period compared to the second half, with the intensity of first-goal production peaking during the first 30 minutes of the first half. It was found that the win rate of teams scoring the first goal at home (Mdn=.73, X̄=.71) was significantly higher than that of teams scoring the first goal away (Mdn=.57, X̄=.50). Conversely, it was observed that home teams experienced the highest rate of defeat (.429) when they failed to score the first goal. No significant relationship was found between early goals (0-30 min) and win rates. It was observed that the winning rate of teams scoring the first goal (Mdn=.643, X̄=.605, SD=.192) was significantly higher than that of teams failing to score the first goal (Mdn=.143, X̄=.162, SD=.111). Scoring the first goal is a decisive factor in securing a victory, particularly for home teams; however, scoring an early goal does not guarantee a win. Therefore, how the remainder of the match is managed is of importance.

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