Dylematy związane z szacunkiem liczby ludności Polski
Dilemmas in estimating the population of Poland

Summary/Abstract: Estimating a population’s size is one of the basic tasks of official statistics. The aim of this article is to present differences in Poland’s population size resulting from different approaches to defining place of residence in national and international statistical definitions. These differences relate primarily to the definition of migration. The article examines, among other issues, how hard-to-reach populations, such as students and foreign nationals, have been accounted for. The analysis takes into consideration the country as a whole as well as selected administrative units, particularly large cities, and reflects the perspectives of different stakeholder groups. We also refer to the relevant recommendations of the United Nations and Eurostat. At the local level, an attempt was made to systematise issues raised by local government authorities concerning Statistics Poland’s population estimates for individual territorial units. In the case of the largest cities, we analysed the results of alternative population estimates commissioned by local authorities. The study employed demographic analysis and comparative statistical methods. We used data for the period of 2020–2024 from Statistics Poland, Eurostat, the United Nations and local government authorities, with comparisons extending back to the year 2000. On the basis of the analyses of student and foreign-national populations, we demonstrate that the number of residents of Poland’s largest cities provided by Statistics Poland is underestimated by 20–30%. We also draw attention to the population mobility associated with employment and education. Based on Statistics Poland’s surveys, commuters account for 20–30% of the resident population. The conclusions concern the application of the resident population definition and the need to verify the methods used to estimate the resident population. Population data has to be complemented in the area of population mobility estimates.

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