Młodzi wyborcy jako kluczowy elektorat dla wyborczego sukcesu – analiza wyników wyborów prezydenckich i parlamentarnych w latach 2015–2023
Young Voters as a Key Electorate for Electoral Success – Analysis of the Results of the Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in 2015–2023

Summary/Abstract: Voter turnout among young Polish women and men in the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2015–2023 increased significantly compared to the turnout in the general elections held before 2015. In the 2020 presidential election it was 67.2%, and in the 2023 parliamentary election it was as high as 68.8%. At the same time, in the period from 2015 to 2023 there was a significant – almost 1.5 million – decline in the population of this social group. The subject of the article is analysis of the potential and strength of the influence the youngest electorate has on the results of general elections in the light of the generation theory, the theory of social divisions, as well as demographic conditions and empirical data on the presidential elections in 2015 and 2020 and the parliamentary elections in 2019 and 2023. Despite the decrease in the number of young voters, this group remains able to determine the outcome of the elections and significantly influence the shape of the political scene.

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