Российско-китайское сотрудничество как инструмент обеспечения устойчивого экономического роста Большой Евразии в условиях глобальной турбулентности
Russian-Chinese Cooperation for Sustainable Economic Growth in Greater Eurasia amid Global Turbulence

Summary/Abstract: Amid increasing global turbulence, Russian–Chinese cooperation is becoming increasingly vital for stability and sustainable growth in Greater Eurasia. This article substantiates its role as a key tool for ensuring the region’s resilience. The central hypothesis is that this cooperation is becoming a key stabilizing force in sustaining cross-country, Eurasian, and global processes. The study draws on UNCTAD’s statistical database to analyse macroeconomic and foreign trade indicators in comparable value terms. Using economic, statistical, logical, and comparative analysis, it examines the dynamics and structure of key foreign trade metrics for the world, Russia, and China. It also identifies stages in the development of Russian–Chinese trade and economic relations since 2014 and outlines how this cooperation exerts a stabilising effect and supports resource security in Greater Eurasia. Forecast scenarios for economic growth (world, Greater Eurasia, Russia, and China) were developed using ARMA and ARIMA models applied to annual GDP time series. The forecasts rely on UNCTAD data from 1992 to 2024, which enhances the stability of model parameter estimates and accounts for different market phases before and after 2014. Scenario projections show that the contribution of Russian–Chinese cooperation and Eurasian integration to the global economy by 2030 varies across three scenarios. The optimistic scenario envisages a shift towards a more polycentric order based on a coalition of Greater Eurasian economies. The findings can inform both bilateral cooperation between Russia and China and their multilateral engagement with Greater Eurasian countries.

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