Влияние геоэкономической фрагментации на инвестиционное взаимодействие России и Китая
The Impact of Geoeconomic Fragmentation on Investment Cooperation Between Russia and China

Summary/Abstract: Over the past decade, investment cooperation between Russia and China has developed more slowly than their political and trade relations. Although previous studies have examined the factors underlying this gap, little attention has been paid to the effects of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation on bilateral investment flows. This article addresses this gap by examining how geoeconomic fragmentation has shaped the scale and directions of investment cooperation between Russia and China. The study identifies the main constraints on bilateral investment, analyses changes in investment flows before and after the intensification of fragmentation processes, and explores potential directions for future cooperation. Given the limitations of official statistics on bilateral investment, the analysis draws on data on direct and, where available, other investments from multiple sources, including the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, CEIC, AidData, and the Eurasian Development Bank, complemented by evidence from selected investment projects. The findings suggest that the initial phase of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation was associated with stronger investment interaction between Russia and China, including through Hong Kong, particularly in 2019–2020. However, from 2022 onwards, bilateral investment cooperation, especially foreign direct investment, has slowed. At the same time, new projects have continued to emerge in selected sectors, including transport and logistics, automotive manufacturing, and other industries. The article identifies several promising directions for future cooperation: the development of alternative financial infrastructure under a scenario of deeper global fragmentation, investment in infrastructure, digital technologies, renewable energy, and space, and improvements in the institutional framework for bilateral investment.

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