Türkiye'de Enflasyon Dinamikleri: Maliyet ve Talep Yönlü Enflasyonun Duyarlılığı ve Para-Maliye Politikalarının Göreli Etkinliği (2002–2026)
Inflation Dynamics in Türkiye: The Sensitivity of Cost-Push and DemandPull Inflation and The Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies (2002–2026)

Summary/Abstract: This study investigates the inflation dynamics of Türkiye over the period 2002–2026 through a comparative macro-structural framework that jointly examines demand-side and cost-push determinants of inflation. The primary objective is to identify the relative importance of demand-driven and cost-driven inflationary pressures across different inflation regimes and to compare the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies under changing macroeconomic conditions. Rather than treating inflation solely as a monetary or demand-side phenomenon, the study adopts a multidimensional perspective that incorporates exchange rate movements, energy prices, imported input costs, wage growth, and producer prices alongside domestic credit expansion, government expenditures, private consumption, and the output gap. Instead of employing conventional econometric causality models, the analysis relies on a regime-based comparative macro-structural methodology using official data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT EVDS), the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the World Bank. The findings reveal that inflation dynamics vary substantially across different regimes: while demand conditions play a more prominent role during low-inflation periods, exchange rate pass-through, energy prices, imported input costs, and supply-side shocks become the dominant drivers during high-inflation episodes. The results further indicate that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on the underlying source of inflation, whereas coordinated policy mixes combining fiscal discipline with supply-side structural reforms produce more favorable outcomes under cost-driven inflation regimes. By demonstrating that inflation cannot be adequately explained through a single theoretical framework, the study contributes to the literature by providing a regime-sensitive analytical perspective and offering policy implications for integrated macroeconomic stabilization strategies in emerging economies.

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