Makroekonomik Kırılganlık ve Büyüme Dinamikleri: MINT Ülkelerinde ‘’Sefalet Endeksi’’nin Panel ARDL ile Analizi
Macroeconomic Vulnerability and Growth Dynamics: An Analysis of the "Misery Index" in MINT Countries Using Panel ARDL

Summary/Abstract: For developing countries, macroeconomic stability is the primary prerequisite for maintaining stability on the global stage. This study aims to examine the short and longterm effects of macroeconomic misery on economic growth in the MINT countries— comprising Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Türkiye—which possess significant potential among emerging markets. The Misery Index, calculated as the sum of inflation and unemployment rates, was utilized as the primary independent variable in this research. The study covers the period from 1993 to 2023, and the relationships between the variables were estimated using the Panel ARDL method. The findings indicate that the Misery Index has a statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in the short run; however, this effect becomes statistically insignificant in the long run. The system's error correction mechanism operates quite rapidly, with approximately 75.5% of short-term shocks being corrected within one year. The results demonstrate that while MINT countries are vulnerable to short-term macroeconomic shocks, they also possess a high degree of resilience and recovery capacity in the long run.

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