THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DISRUPTIONS ON FOREIGN TRADE OPERATIONS AND LOGISTICS CHAINS IN SERBIA
THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DISRUPTIONS ON FOREIGN TRADE OPERATIONS AND LOGISTICS CHAINS IN SERBIA

Summary/Abstract: International economic disruptions, including the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the geopolitical and energy disruptions associated with the war in Ukraine, have significantly altered the conditions governing international trade and the functioning of logistics flows. This paper aims to examine the relationship between international economic disruptions and the dynamics of Serbia’s exports, as well as to assess changes in logistics activity during periods of heightened global uncertainty. The econometric analysis covers the period from 2000 to 2024 and is based on an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, in which the export growth rate is specified as the dependent variable, while real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, oil prices, and dummy variables representing the periods of the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical disruptions are included as explanatory variables. In addition, a descriptive analysis of road freight transport dynamics in Serbia over the period 2014–2024, measured in million tonne-kilometres, was conducted to assess changes in logistics activity during the observed periods of disruption. The results of the econometric analysis indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between real GDP growth and Serbia’s export growth, whereas oil prices and the dummy variables representing individual periods of disruption are not statistically significant in the baseline model. The analysis of logistics activity reveals pronounced changes in road freight transport dynamics, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic and in the period following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The findings highlight the importance of domestic economic activity for Serbia’s export performance and demonstrate the sensitivity of trade and logistics flows to changes in the international economic environment.

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