Montenegro’s EU Accession. Proof-of-Concept or a Sorting Mechanism?
Montenegro’s EU Accession. Proof-of-Concept or a Sorting Mechanism?

Summary/Abstract: The European Commission’s June 2026 financial package of 3.2 billion euros for Montenegro, designed to ensure the country’s participation in EU policies and budget, has bolstered this Western Balkan country’s status as the “frontrunner” among the candidates for EU accession. What are the implications of Montenegro’s potential EU accession for the rest of the region? In the main, Montenegro’s accession would boost the EU’s credibility proving that reform is still rewarded with membership, but the prospect of a “two-tier” member-ship model risks offsetting that promise for other candidates. Regionally, the impact will be uneven. Albania might benefit the most, while Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and North Macedonia are likely to gain little, due to structural and bilateral issues. Serbia’s stalled accession and backsliding may deepen the country’s isolation and drift toward Russia. Finally, Montenegro’s accession would recalibrate geopolitical competition, curbing Chinese and Russian leverage in the country, while potentially concentrating it elsewhere in the region.

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