Türkiye’de Savunma Kaynakları ve Terör Tehdidi Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkiler: 1994–2020 Dönemi Analizi
Dynamic Relationships Between Defence Resources and the Terrorist Threat in Türkiye: An Analysis of the 1994–2020 Period

Summary/Abstract: This study investigates the relationships among military expenditures (ASH), armed forces personnel capacity (SKP), conventional arms imports (SIH), and terrorist attacks (TES) in Türkiye using annual data from 1994 to 2020. To control for the potential effects of macroeconomic conditions, the inflation rate was included in the model as an exogenous control variable. The stationarity properties of the variables were examined through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips- Perron (PP), and Zivot-Andrews structural break unit root tests. The results indicate that all series are integrated of order one, I(1). The dynamic relationships among the variables were analyzed using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test within a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework, along with Variance Decomposition analysis and Impulse Response Functions constructed with ±1 standard error bands. The Toda-Yamamoto test results reveal statistically significant unidirectional causal relationships running from military expenditures to terrorist attacks, from military expenditures and armed forces personnel capacity to conventional arms imports, and from armed forces personnel capacity to military expenditures. The Impulse Response Functions and Variance Decomposition analyses further indicate the presence of dynamic interactions among military expenditures, personnel capacity, and terrorist incidents over time. This study goes beyond the conventional military expenditure-terrorism nexus commonly examined in the literature by incorporating armed forces personnel capacity and conventional arms imports into a unified analytical framework. In doing so, it provides empirical evidence that contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the interplay between defense economics and internal security dynamics in the case of Türkiye.

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