Türkiye’de SGK’nın Sağlık Harcamalarının Sürdürülebilirliği İçin Hastane Başvuru ve Maliyet Projeksiyonları (2012–2030)
Hospital Demand and Expenditure Projections for the Sustainability of Social Security Health Financing in Türkiye (2012–2030)

Summary/Abstract: This study aims to forecast the number of future hospital admissions and their associated costs in hospitals financed by the Social Security Institution (SSI) in Türkiye. The study population consists of secondary and tertiary Ministry of Health hospitals, university hospitals, and contracted private hospitals supported by SGK. Data covering the period 2012–2024 were obtained from SSI’s official database. Projections for the years 2012–2030 were conducted using linear regression analysis, the Prophet model, and the SARIMA model. Forecasts for previous periods were compared with actual values to evaluate the reliability of the models. The results indicate an upward trend in hospital admissions, with noticeable effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the models differ in performance, all predict an increase in total admissions until 2030. Total hospital expenditures have followed a fluctuating trend, with a dramatic rise between 2022 and 2024. Projections also show that expenditures will continue to increase. Among the models, SARIMA captured seasonal patterns and long-term trends more effectively, Prophet was successful in estimating short-term fluctuations, while linear regression showed more limited performance. The study demonstrates that demand forecasts for healthcare services are critically important for sustainable financing and resource planning. The findings provide policymakers with evidence-based insights into the financial sustainability of SSI. Furthermore, it is suggested that future demand forecasting studies in healthcare should integrate statistical models with socio-demographic data and external environmental factors to improve reliability.

• Details
• Contents