Kwantyfikacja zewnętrznych zagrożeń bezpieczeństwa. Indeks ryzyka geopolitycznego dla Polski w XXI w.
Quantifying External Security Threats: The Geopolitical Risk Index for Poland in the 21st Century

Summary/Abstract: RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: To propose a universal measure for quantifying external threats to state security, their level, and dynamics. RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The reactivation of external security threats forces nation-states to counteract their materialization, while the success of deterrence strategy depends on knowledge of the nature and scale of the threats. Unfortunately, measuring phenomena in the field of security poses numerous difficulties. Therefore, in seeking to explore the problem, a review of domestic and foreign literature, analysis of statistical data, and the Spearman rank correlation method were used. THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: In the theoretical part of the text, after a brief characterization of security as a state and a process, the role of modeling in explaining the relationships between security phenomena is presented. Then, treating external security as an explanatory variable, the geopolitical risk index was used to express quantitatively the level of threats originating from the international environment. In the empirical part of the work, the monthly values of the index for Poland were analyzed to check whether it responded to actual security threats in the years 2000–2023. Then, using the indices for Poland and Hungary, the convergence of index dynamics between the countries was compared. RESEARCH RESULTS: The geopolitical risk index is a universal measure of external security, expressing the level and dynamics of military and paramilitary threats (and challenges). CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS: The indicator can be used for comparative research, as well as for modeling the process of state security. The index may also be useful for monitoring threats in the security management process.

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