Enerji İthalat Bağımlılığı, Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve İhracat Performansı: Türkiye ve OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi
Energy Import Dependency, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Export Performance: A Panel Data Analysis on Türkiye and OECD Countries

Summary/Abstract: With the expansion of global trade volume, countries’ foreign trade performance is increasingly affected by macroeconomic dynamics such as energy supply security and financial market stability. This study aims to comparatively examine the effects of energy import dependency and exchange rate volatility on export performance in Türkiye and the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The study uses an annual panel dataset covering the 2000–2024 period. Export performance is modeled through energy import dependency, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, the real effective exchange rate, and exchange rate volatility. To account for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, the CIPS panel unit root test, Westerlund panel cointegration test, Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors, Mean Group estimator, and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test are applied. The findings demonstrate that economic size is the main determinant of exports, while the real exchange rate and exchange rate volatility negatively affect export performance. While energy import dependency generally functions as an input supporting exports across OECD countries, it limits export performance in Türkiye by creating cost pressure. Consequently, sustainable export growth requires structural policies that reduce energy import dependency, enhance energy efficiency, and limit exchange rate volatility.

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