Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıklarının Sürdürülebilirliği: Ampirik Kanıtlar
Sustainability of Budget Deficits in Türkiye: Empirical Evidence

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this study is to determine the sustainability of budget deficits and the size of the deficit in Türkiye and to reveal the dynamics of public revenues and expenditures. In this study, the ‘Budget Deficit (b)’ variable obtained by accessing the ‘Central Government Expenditures’ and ‘Central Government Revenues’ variables for the period 2006:01-2024:08 through the Electronic Data Distribution System of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye is used. This variable was firstly tested in the Argumented Dickey Fuller (1981) Unit Root Test and then in the Lee and Strazicich (2003-2013), Narayan and Popp (2010) and Zivot and Andrews (1992) Unit Root Tests that take into account structural breaks. The findings of the analyses indicate that different unit root tests yield different results for the sustainability of budget deficits in Türkiye. In fact, according to the ADF (1981), Zivot and Andrews (1992) and Narayan and Popp (2010) unit root tests, the non-stationarity of the ‘Budget Deficit (b)’ variable indicates that budget deficits are not sustainable in Türkiye, while according to the Lee and Strazicich (2013) and Lee and Strazicich (2003) unit root tests, the fact that the ‘Budget Deficit (b)’ variable is stationary at level indicates that budget deficits are sustainable in Türkiye. In this regard, the discussion focused on the fact that the budget deficit stems from insufficient financing and on the necessity of policies aimed at ensuring fiscal discipline and borrowing to ensure the sustainability of the deficit.

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