Zagregowana ocena kondycji finansowej przedsiębiorstw z wykorzystaniem polskich modeli upadłości
The Aggregate Rating of Enterprise Financial Condition Using the Polish Bankruptcy Models

Summary/Abstract: This paper presents the aggregate rating of financial distress for the selected group of Polish enterprises, using 20 bankruptcy prediction models developed by various Polish authors. The authors describe the principles of construction of models used to predict bankruptcy, pointing to a common solution which is a linear discriminant function and the logit model. Attention is also focused on the selection of the indicators used in the construction of early warning systems. The effectiveness of the tested prediction models was verified for the selected sample including 53 companies that went bankrupt during the period 2003-2011 and 53 firms in good financial condition. The research has shown that the quality of the resulting classification was satisfactory only for five models. In other cases, the tested models give too low proportion of correct identification, or too strong asymmetry in identifying healthy and endangered firms. However, if the assessment of the financial condition of individual enterprises is carried out on an aggregate basis, using the dominant indications from all the available models, then the distinction between the healthy class and the endangered class is correctly recognized for 87% of the companies. In addition, the aggregate assessment method provides an opportunity to obtain the classification of less asymmetry than the use of individual models.

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