Political debate as a filter: defence policy dynamics in EU member states (2004-2024)
Political debate as a filter: defence policy dynamics in EU member states (2004-2024)
Author(s): Georgi PenchevSubject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, Governance, Public Finances, Geopolitics
Published by: Editura Universităţii »Alexandru Ioan Cuza« din Iaşi
Keywords: defence policy; political debate; defence expenditures; European Union;
Summary/Abstract: This article examines the relationship between external threats, domestic political debate, and defence expenditures in EU member states, 2004–2024. Using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) applied to Manifesto Project data, political debate dynamics are quantitatively measured against a threat index constructed from UCDP conflict fatalities. Robustness is confirmed against per-capita and distance-weighted variants and the Caldara-Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index. Cluster analysis identifies four threat-response patterns and two debate-spending patterns. Right-wing governments show systematically higher defence stances. GDP-weighted EU averages diverge substantially from simple averages, particularly for opposition stances. The comparative analysis confirms the mediating role of domestic politics in European defence policy heterogeneity.
Journal: Eastern Journal of European Studies
- Issue Year: 17/2026
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 216-243
- Page Count: 28
- Language: English
