Podobieństwo wstrząsów podażowych i popytowych w Polsce i innych krajach Unii Europejskiej
Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between Poland and Other EU Countries

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the correlation and relative magnitude of supply and demand shocks between Poland and other European Union (EU) countries, as well as to evaluate adjustments to economic shocks in these economies. The analysis is based on a bivariate structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions derived from the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model. Using quarterly data on GDP and prices for 23 EU countries from 1995 to 2013, the authors have identified the underlying supply (permanent) and demand (temporary) shocks. The correlation of economic shocks varies strongly across countries but regarding Poland and any given EU country it is significantly higher for supply shocks and more idiosyncratic for demand ones. In a dynamic analysis, no apparent patterns were seen concerning increase or decrease in correlation coefficients except for the period of the crisis (2007–2010). The magnitude of supply and demand disturbances in Polish economy was substantially larger than in the core EMU countries. Joint analysis of correlation and size of shocks leads to the conclusion that countries highly correlated with Poland in terms of demand shocks tend also to experience shocks of similar magnitude. Among other EU economies, Poland (as well as e.g. Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia) revealed comparatively fast adjustment to economic shocks.

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