Zastosowanie modelu ARIMA do prognozy importu towarów do Polski na 2019 rok
The Implementation of ARIMA Model for the Forecast of Importation of Goods to Poland in 2019

Summary/Abstract: In the article the author raises the issue related to the analysis and evaluation of data concerning the importation of goods to Poland between 2011-2018 in millions of tons and the attempt to conduct the forecasting of exportation in Poland for fourteen future periods with the application of ARIMA model. The research was initiated with the analysis and evaluation of data concerning the importation of goods in millions of tons in Poland dynamically. Then, based on the evaluation obtained, the ARIMA prognostic model was applied, and, after that, two study models of ARIMA type were constructed. These ARIMA models were analyzed and evaluated. The best one was chosen. Based on it, the original time series was forecast. The results, which were gathered, were presented in the summary.

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