An Offensive Realist Explanation for the Absence of War Between Portugal and Spain from 1479 to 1516
An Offensive Realist Explanation for the Absence of War Between Portugal and Spain from 1479 to 1516

Summary/Abstract: For most of the early twenty-first century, the rise of China has raised the question of whether a future war with the US is likely. Less than a decade ago, that question led to a wave of research that incorporated historical case studies back from the early modern period. One such case is the security competition between Portugal and Spain at the end of the fifteenth century. By adding this case, International Relations (IR) scholars broadened the empirical base from which to draw analogies for the current U.S.-China competition. Yet the Iberian case has been misrepresented and only superficially analysed. This article offers a deeper examination of the competition between Portugal and Spain from the settlement reached in the Treaty of Alcáçovas (1479) through the death of the Spanish King, Ferdinand the Catholic (1516), and the subsequent subordination of Spanish foreign policy to the Holy Roman Empire. Unlike other realists’ accounts that rely on ad hoc explanations, this analysis remains firmly within the realist tradition by systematically comparing the strategies pursued by both powers with the optimal responses laid out in John J. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism.

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