Counterfactual Reasoning and Medium-Size States in the International System – Arguments for the Structural and Systemic Perspective
Counterfactual Reasoning and Medium-Size States in the International System – Arguments for the Structural and Systemic Perspective

Summary/Abstract: This article refers to counterfactual scenarios on medium-size states in the international system and their history. The article discusses the essence of counterfactual reasoning. It presents the main conclusions from the debate on plausibility and legitimacy of counterfactual scenarios, as well as potential benefits from counterfactual thinking in the study of international processes. Yet the article suggests that the main features of counterfactual thinking, including its agency and context-oriented perspective, may be most valuable for the system’s leaders. In the case of medium-size states, the role of domestic and individual variables is reduced by the impact of systemic and structural constraints, and the picture of potential benefits from the counterfactual analysis is more complicated. Counterfactual scenarios on medium-size states tend to be “miracle” ones and escape any “minimal rewrite of history” principle. Similarly, counterfactual “lessons from the past” may be inconclusive for the medium-size actors and unable to reveal real causes and determinants of the course of their history, especially in East-Central Europe.

• Details
• Contents