China – Macroeconomic Developments in 2025 and Medium-Run Outlook
China – Macroeconomic Developments in 2025 and Medium-Run Outlook
Author(s): Andrei RădulescuSubject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Economy, Law, Constitution, Jurisprudence, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, International Law, Financial Markets, Socio-Economic Research, Geopolitics
Published by: Великотърновски университет „Св. св. Кирил и Методий”
Keywords: resilience; uncertainty; China; potential output
Summary/Abstract: The Chinese economy has recently shown strong resilience amid the unprecedented rise in global uncertainty in 2025, driven by shifts in trade policy in the world’s largest economy. Economic activity advanced at an annual rate of 5.2% during January – September 2025, according to estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing, as policymakers focused on implementing new quality productive forces, including data and robotics. China continued to outperform the USA and the Eurozone in the annual rates of export and industrial production volumes. In this paper, we apply standard analytical tools and draw on databases from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the International Monetary Fund, and the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis to assess macroeconomic developments in 2025 and the medium-run outlook for China (2026–2027), the second-largest economy in the world. According to our econometric analysis, the annual potential growth rate of economicactivity in China is estimated at 4.5% in 2025 and above 4% by 2027. In our view, this indicator would change the trend in the coming quarters, as the policy mix would focus on stimulating domestic demand, while the positive impact of BRI implementation would intensify.
- Issue Year: 11/2026
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 158-167
- Page Count: 10
- Language: English
