Геоэкономическая устойчивость АПК: концепция и методика оценки в условиях внешнеэкономических ограничений
Geoeconomic Sustainability of the Agro-Industrial Complex in Russia under External Economic Restrictions: Conceptual Framework and Assessment Methodology

Summary/Abstract: Russia’s agricultural sector faces growing challenges from external economic restrictions, sanctions, and disrupted supply chains. The traditional sustainable development framework, encompassing environmental, economic, and social components, does not account for risks stemming from geoeconomic instability, creating a gap in theory and methodology. This study develops a concept of geoeconomic sustainability in agriculture and proposes an assessment methodology that enables a quantitative evaluation of the sector’s capacity to adapt to external constraints and maintain export potential. The research employs a systems approach, along with comparative and dynamic analysis. The empirical base includes data from international organizations (ITC, WTO) and the Federal Centre for Agricultural Export Development of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture for 2014–2024. Subindices are calculated using formalized models with weighting coefficients reflecting sectoral characteristics. The results reveal a paradoxical trend: despite a decline in the number of importing countries (from 126 in 2018 to 85 in 2024), export value increased (from 562.1 to 3,383.6 million roubles). The geoeconomic sustainability index decreased from 54.0 to 38.4 points, indicating rising systemic risks, primarily due to reduced export diversification. This reflects a pattern of successful but risky adaptation, characterized by concentration on key markets (China, Turkey, Egypt) and reduced logistics diversification. The proposed methodology can support policymakers and businesses in managing external economic risks, diversifying exports, and developing adaptive logistics systems. Limitations include reduced statistical detail after 2022. Future research should focus on sectoral and regional models and integration into strategic planning frameworks.

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