Развитие промышленности России в контексте перехода к циркулярной экономике и Индустрии 5.0
Industrial Development in Russia amid the Transition to a Circular Economy and Industry 5.0

Summary/Abstract: The transition to a circular economy and the rise of Industry 5.0 are creating an increasing demand for comprehensive tools to assess industrial transformation. This study develops a methodological approach for evaluating the levels of industrial development in Russia under these twin conditions and applies it to the period 2015–2024. Empirically, the study draws on official statistical data on Russia’s industrial production, selected according to criteria of comparability and completeness. The methodology integrates structural and logical analysis, a comparative economic approach, min–max normalization of indicators, and integral assessment, complemented by a systematic review of relevant theoretical and empirical literature. The principal output is a CE × I5.0 matrix that enables the classification of industrial development levels across nine quadrants. Analysis of positioning dynamics reveals an uneven trajectory of change. In 2015, industry was situated in Quadrant VI, reflecting moderate circular practices alongside low technological development. Between 2016 and 2018, incremental gains shifted positioning to Quadrant VIII, indicating evolutionary progress without substantial qualitative transformation. By 2019, improvements in both CE and I5.0 indicators signalled a transition to Quadrant V, suggesting gradual adaptation to emerging technological and institutional conditions. Regressions were recorded in 2020 and 2022, attributable to systemic constraints and declining investment activity, while recovery phases in 2021 and 2024 returned industry to Quadrant IV, consolidating a foundation for sustainable development. The empirical findings confirm a robust relationship between the adoption of circular economy principles and the level of industrial technological development. Their joint implementation produces a synergistic effect, manifested in improved economic efficiency, reduced resource dependence, and enhanced long-term resilience of industrial production. The findings offer practical value for the design of industrial and technological modernization programs.

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