ABD Desteği Olmaksızın İsrail’in Genişleme Kapasitesi: Karşı-Olgusal Bir Simülasyon Analizi
Israel’s Capacity for Expansion Without U.S. Support: A Counterfactual Study of Strategic Dependency

Summary/Abstract: This study examines how Israel’s capacity for regional expansion changes under a counterfactual simulation model in scenarios where military, financial, and diplomatic support from the United States (U.S.) is reduced or withdrawn. The central research question addresses whether Israel can sustain its expansion strategy in the event of a gradual withdrawal, sudden cutoff, or conditional continuation of U.S. support. To this end, a scenario-based simulation approach is employed, analyzing indicators such as military readiness, budgetary pressure, diplomatic isolation, and expansion feasibility on an annual basis. The findings indicate that a reduction in U.S. support significantly constrains Israel’s expansion capacity not only in military terms but also across economic and diplomatic dimensions. By engaging with the literature on asymmetric alliances and strategic dependency, the study demonstrates that state capacity cannot be evaluated independently of external support structures.

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