Exchange Rate Volatility and Financial Market Activity in the MENA Region: New Evidence Using a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression
Exchange Rate Volatility and Financial Market Activity in the MENA Region: New Evidence Using a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression

Summary/Abstract: This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on financial market activity using a sample of 20 MENA countries from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4. An exchange rate volatility index was derived for each country based on the conditional variance estimated using ARCH/ GARCH models. The main findings using a dynamic panel threshold estimation technique revealed a threshold effect in the relationship between the exchange rate volatility and financial market activity. In oil-exporting countries, exchange rate volatility negatively effects on stock returns at lower or upper threshold levels in a different regime. in non-oil-exporting countries, the adverse effect intensifies when transitioning to the high-threshold regime, indicating greater sensitivity to exchange rate instability. Thus, policymakers in the MENA should formulate foreign exchange policy strategies that support exchange rate stability and assist financial market participants in improving risk management, expand the use of hedging instruments, and diversifying portfolios to withstand heightened volatility.

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