Technological maturity for Jeune École: The case of Ukraine's naval strategy
Technological maturity for Jeune École: The case of Ukraine's naval strategy

Summary/Abstract: This paper conducts an in-depth study on how Ukraine changed the balance of military power in the Black Sea. It conceptualises the idea that the development of modern military technology has reached a level of maturity, providing a new perspective for the Jeune École concept. The paper uses the process tracing method to establish a timeline from Russian full blockade to Ukrainian sea denial. The battlefield application of anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) in the early stages of the war created the necessary conditions for establishing sea denial, followed by the continued use of ASCM, aerial drones, and maritime drones to consolidate the initial successes. The international community observed Ukraine's deployment of unmanned systems with great interest, heralding it as the dawn of a new era in naval warfare. However, when analysed in depth, it becomes clear that traditional weaponry played the decisive role in achieving sea denial initially. Only after the Russian Federation's fleet had been forced from the coastal waters did naval drones begin to extend and solidify the denied area. The research further indicates that even a smaller state can produce significant strategic effects using anti-ship cruise missiles and swarming maritime drones--principles rooted in the historic Jeune École doctrine. Findings reveal that technological advances have significantly mitigated the traditional limitations of small platforms, especially in adverse conditions. As such, the combination of Jeune École's asymmetric maritime strategy and modern unmanned systems offers a viable blueprint for smaller nations to challenge superior naval forces, dispute blockades, and achieve effective sea denial.

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