Uloga centralnog bankarstva, kreditiranja i geopolitičkih rizika u savremenoj epohi
The Role of Central Banking, Loans and Geopolitical Risks in the Contemporary Era

Summary/Abstract: Central banks play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability through controlling the money supply and supporting loan lending to businesses and households. Loans are important for stimulating growth, but excessive borrowing and poor regulation can lead to financial crises. The modern world faces challenges in the form of geopolitical crises such as wars, sanctions, and political instability, which significantly affect financial markets and reduce the landing capacity of banks, particularly in developing countries. These situations increase risks, slow economic growth, and complicate the work of central banks, which must balance controlling inflation with supporting the economy. Geopolitical risk disrupts supply chains, increases inflation, and diminishes investor confidence. Banks often respond by raising interest rates and tightening lending conditions, thus transferring risks to end-users, i.e., loan holders. Fiscal policy, along with monetary policy, plays an important role in stabilising the economy, but its effectiveness depends on timely responses and coordination. Examples of sanctions show how geopolitical tensions affect the banking sector, making access to international financial markets more difficult and increasing risks. Global conflicts and political crises, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and conflicts in the Middle East, further burden financial systems and require central banks to adopt new strategies and innovative instruments to preserve stability. This paper highlights the importance of an integrated approach that combines central banking, loan lending, fiscal and monetary policies and the management of geopolitical risk to achieve sustainable economic development in a dynamic and uncertain world. The paper uses descriptive and comparative analysis of macroeconomic data for the period 2021–2025. The findings indicate that geopolitical risks significantly increase inflation and reduce lending activity, especially in developing economies.

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