Tipološka analiza (ne)učinkovitosti sporazumâ iz Minska u kontekstu rusko-ukrajinskog rata
Typological Analysis Of The (In)Effectiveness Of The Minsk Agreements In The Context Of The Russian-Ukrainian War

Summary/Abstract: The Minsk Agreements signed in 2014 and 2015 represent significant diplomatic initiatives aimed at the peaceful resolution of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine. Although the Minsk Agreements constituted a key diplomatic framework for the de-escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, their implementation was marked by structural fragmentation, operational incon sistency, and gradual political delegitimization, manifested in the decreasing willingness of key actors to implement them, the weakening of international support, and the growing skepticism of both Ukrainian and international public opinion regarding their effectiveness. In the context of the hybrid nature of the conflict, the lack of trust among actors, and the operational limitations of international monitoring on the ground (including the mandate and access of the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe – OSCE), the capacity of the Minsk Agreements to contribute to a long-term stabilization process and the establishment of sustainable peace was significantly diminished. This paper analyzes the (in)effectiveness of the Minsk Agreements by applying an enhanced typological framework of peace agreements developed by Margaletić (2022; 2025), which includes four fundamental indicators: type of war, design of the peace agreement, outcome of the peace agreement, and the mode of conflict termination.

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