Electricity Trade in Southeast Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria and Its Neighboring Interconnected Markets
Electricity Trade in Southeast Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria and Its Neighboring Interconnected Markets

Summary/Abstract: This study examines cross-border electricity trade in a subregional Southeast European setting centred on Bulgaria and its directly interconnected neighbouring countries: Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece, and Türkiye. A gravity-inspired panel model is applied to annual data for 1990–2022 to identify long-run and persistent relationships in regional electricity trade within a comparable long-term panel. The results indicate that a 1% increase in electricity production is associated with an increase of 0.04069 GWh in net electricity exports, while a 1% increase in final electricity consumption is associated with a decrease of 0.03852 GWh in net electricity exports. Within the estimated specification, regulation and EU membership are not statistically significant. The findings are discussed in the broader context of regional market restructuring, EU energy policy, and geopolitical developments affecting electricity trade in Southeast Europe.

• Details
• Contents