Divided by Crisis: Spatial Analysis of the First Round of the Czech Presidential Election 2023 in the Context of the War in Ukraine
Divided by Crisis: Spatial Analysis of the First Round of the Czech Presidential Election 2023 in the Context of the War in Ukraine

Summary/Abstract: This article presents the results of a geographical analysis of the first round of the presidential election 2023 in Czechia, focusing on the two most successful candidates: Petr Pavel and Andrej Babiš. The results are analysed in the context of cleavage theory, namely in the context of Ukrainian refugees, whom Czechia has accepted the most in Europe. After the worst phase of the COVID-19 pandemic subsided, the country entered another crisis that fuelled populist sentiment. Using geographically weighted regression and the OLS model, the analysis shows a significant spatial non-stationarity of this variable. In accordance with previous research, significantly diverse patterns and an unstable direction of action of this variable in relation to ideologically heterogeneous candidates were also revealed. In addition, the overlap of electoral support for candidates with the electoral results of supporting political parties was also confirmed, as well as the influence of traditional socioeconomic factors. On the contrary, except for the entrepreneur variable, these are rather spatially stationary, and their influence does not change significantly across the country.

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