Push factors behind the migration wave in the Western Balkan countries
Push factors behind the migration wave in the Western Balkan countries

Summary/Abstract: This study examines the push factors causing labor force emigration from the six Western Balkan countries; Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, based on a comprehensive dataset of 6000 observations from the Balkan Barometer. The analysis uses logistic regression models (Ordinary Least Squares—OLS Robust—Fixed Effects-- Random Effects) to understand how socioeconomic and political factors impact emigration. The model examines the dependent variable, migration ( Yes/No), against independent variables that include Employment Status, Economic Situation, Belief in Justice System, Political Situation, Education System, and Public Services. The findings confirm that of the push factors, unemployment and economic situation are the leading factors with log-odds coefficients between -0.79 to -0.85 and -0.39 to -0.42, respectively, followed by weak institutional values and political instability (coefficients ranged between -0.16 to -0.38). ANOVA analysis discovered that the emigration rates differed between countries, with Montenegro and Serbia having higher rates (0.22 and 0.21) than Albania and North Macedonia (0.15 and 0.16). This research supports the hypothesis that socioeconomic and political factors are significant drivers of migration pressure. From a policy perspective, job creation and improved living standards with strong governance will help lessen the pressure to emigrate. This study adds to the migration literature by providing a nuance, region-specific context and illustrates the importance of interventions that are place-based solutions that address the root causes of migration in the Western Balkans.

• Details
• Contents