Affective forecasting in pedagogy students: expectations versus reality
Affective forecasting in pedagogy students: expectations versus reality

Summary/Abstract: This report examines affective forecasting among pedagogy students at Burgas State University “Prof. Dr Assen Zlatarov” in Bulgaria.The aim of the study is to conduct a comparative analysis between the students affective forecasts and their retrospective emotional feedback regarding their subjective happiness resulting from academic success during the winter examination session. For the purposes of the study, a questionnaire with four items was developed and administered in two stages. There is a gap of 5 months between the two stages of the research, and the study was conducted during the 2024 – 2025 academic year. The study involved 205 students aged between 19 and 47 from all undergraduate pedagogy programs within the Faculty of Social Sciences. Responses were measured using a five-point Likert scale, which categorized student answers into five levels – very low, low, neutral, high, and very high levels of happiness/unhappiness. The majority of students exhibited a tendency to overestimate the happiness they expected to feel from future academic success. This trend was most pronounced among students aged 19 – 25, who initially forecasted a very high level of happiness upon passing their exams, but reported slightly lower actual emotional states just five months later. These findings support the concept of hedonic adaptation, which suggests that most people return to an emotional baseline after positive or negative events. Despite inaccuracies in affective forecasting, the study's results indicate that students are highly engaged in their academic achievements, which serve as a significant source of subjective wellbeing.

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